British Champions Day – Ascot Betting Tips
Tomorrow Ascot will host the richest ever flat meeting staged in English history – in total 3million pounds is up for grabs. Two Group Ones will be run – the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes and the English Champion Stakes. Qipco have kindly sponsored the card which has drawn a whole host of top class equines. The undoubted star of the show will be Frankel who returns to the track looking for a fourth consecutive Group One race.
1.50 – Champions Long Distance Cup
Run over two miles, the days longest race requires stamina to be at a premium. There is no doubting the races class horse, Fame And Glory. The Ballydoyle runner will win this if running to his current official mark, but he is on a recovery mission after the Irish St.Leger where he was turned over at odds of 8/13f. Supposedly, the colt had been suffering from sore shins. At 9/4 he doesn’t offer great value.
The same can be said of your current favourite, Opinion Poll, who at the moment is trading at 2/1. I certainly feel the Godolphin charge is one to get after – a long season and quick ground should conspire against him. John Dunlop is a trainer with a good record in this race having won the 2004 and 2009 runnings. The west Sussex trainer looks to have an improving horse in Times Up who has been a model of consistency throughout his career. The quick ground won’t bother him. In fact, he’ll love it. If the two market leaders don’t run well, this lad will certainly pick up the pieces.
Of the rest, I can’t see many others causing an upset in a race where traditionally, favourites and those to the fore in the market hold sway. That being said, for me, the Mark Johnston runner, Colour Vision, is grossly overpriced in a ten runner race. In a race where three-year-olds have a terrific record, three wins in the last ten years and six places, he is overpriced. He is a horse who is improving and if last Saturday’s race hasn’t taken the edge off him, he’ll go very well at a nice price. A strong stayer, the three front running horses should set the race up for him. Further strengthening his cause is the form of the stable and stable jockey, Silvestre De Sousa.
Advice: 1.5pts each-way Colour Vision @ 16/1
2.25 – Champions Sprint Stakes
A field of ten look set to go to post for the days sprint feature. Another race in which three-year-olds have a good record, it would be silly to dismiss any of their chances – even the bigger priced runners.
James Fanshawe has a fantastic record at Ascot and the Newmarket trainer is double handed here with Deacon Blues and Society Rock. The former is one of the biggest improving sprinters in training while the latter is a Group One winner with a formidable course record. Both look sure to go well, although Deacon Blues’ chances would be hindered by quick ground (personally I think he’ll be ok), but I really like the chances of the French raider, Moonlight Cloud. Fitting the profile of a Classic generation runner, she also has the class to boot.
Sent off favourite for this year’s 1000 Guineas, where she got an average ride at best, she is now making up for lost time. She dismantled a strong field last time out in the Prix Maurice where Society Rock was a full four lengths behind her. The ground was soft on that occasion and she will encounter different conditions tomorrow. Many top judges fear the worst given the ground but to me, her pedigree suggests she may even improve further on the ground.
With plenty in her favour, I think she’ll go close. I just hope her extended break doesn’t affect her race sharpness. For each-way backers I think Genki will outrun his odds of 16/1. A real strong pace could see the son of Shinko Forest finishing faster than most.
Advice: 2pts win Moonlight Cloud @ 10/3 0.25pts each-way Genki @ 16/1
3.00 – British Champions Fillies’ And Mares’ Stakes
This is a race in which I don’t think I’ll be getting too heavily involved in. Female horses, just like humans, can be highly unpredictable and leave you red faced and empty pocketed. It’s been a recurring theme in this piece, but three-year-olds really hold sway over their elders at this time of year. With two of the market rivals preferring cut in the ground, value may be found.
Crystal Capella is a horse who prefers some juice and even given the fact she’s going for three wins in four years in this race, I’m willing to take her on. Your current favourite, Vita Nova, is another who performs best in rain softened ground so I’m willing to take her on too. Bible Belt is a horse coming into this race fresher than most and given she already obtains an official rating of 111, just three lbs behind Banimpire and five lbs behind Dancing Rain, she rates a live danger. Quick ground will really aid her cause and improve the daughter of Big Bad Bob. The step up to twelve furlongs may also eke out further improvement – her pedigree says it will. The top class Fran Berry takes the ride and hopefully he’ll unleash this horse’s turn of foot late, to swoop to glory. A horse that is overpriced and offers real value.
Advice: 1pt each-way Bible Belt @ 16/1
3.35 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Frankel will bid to emulate the late George Washington in doing the 2000 Guineas/Queen Elizabeth II Stakes double and also join the likes of Falbrav, Raven’s Pass and Rip Van Winkle who each won this race over the last decade. There is no doubting Frankel has already scaled the lofty heights set before him – his performances have been simply breath-taking, a joy to watch.
The unbeaten Frankel runs in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at 3.35 Saturday
Nearly eleven months to the day Frankel opened his account, simply brushing aside subsequent King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner, Nathaniel. His exuberant style of racing, turn of foot, stamina and sheer class has seen him stay unbeaten – winning four Group Ones and accounting for eleven individual Group One winners directly. Indirectly, his form ties him in with the best of the best, it’s quite unbelievable. The three-year-old colt seems to have very little flaws. Already twice a course and distance winner, on varying grounds, the track holds no fears. His stable, that of Sir Henry Cecil’s, are still firing out winners with one in every three horses winning. A good even pace looks guaranteed with Frankel’s two stable companions, Bullet Train, his three parts brother, and Cityscape set to run. Frankel really should win barring accidents as he has directly accounted for three of his rivals already this season while indirectly, through form lines, he has the beating of four others. Lets hope for another master class.
The only filly in the race, Immortal Verse, looks set to take her chance. The French raider is certainly a high class equine – lowering the colours of supermare, Goldikova, solidifying the previous statement. The daughter of Pivotal is unbeaten in three starts, two of those at the highest level, with one coming at the Royal Ascot meeting. Her victory in the Coronation Stakes showed her devastating turn of foot but, also her liking for soft ground. She is very much untested on a sound surface and given her pedigree, prevailing conditions are a big worry. Her course and distance form can still see her into a place, however.
Of those opposing Frankel his old foe Excelebration looks set to fill the runner-up spot. Having been turned over by Frankel in the Greenham Stakes and the St James’s Palace Stakes earlier in the season the son of Exceed And Excel has gone on to record two high profile victories – the Group Two German 2000 Guineas and the Group One Prix Du Moulin. Italian trainer, Marco Botti, has since reported his stable star to be in fine fettle and “stronger”. Positive reports I do agree but, the chances of turning over Frankel rest on the selection failing to fire.The rest of the field is all much the same but, Poet’s Voice, can run well at a nice price. Given Frankel is a 1/3 shot a bet without the hotpot favourite is advised.
Advice: 2pts Excelebration @ 13/8 (Betting Without Frankel)
4.10 – Champions Stakes
Questions loom over ex-Australian import, So You Think. A much hyped animal this season one would have to be concerned with connections taking on this secondary engagement after a failed mission in his primary target, the Arc. A horror draw cost So You Think the race and he could only finish a never nearer fourth to the surprise, but classy winner, Danedream. One could argue he didn’t have the hardest of races there but, at the prices I’m willing to take him on.
Twice Over will bid to become only the second horse ever to win three English Champion Stakes after Tristan completed the feat back in 1882-1884. Henry Cecil’s charge has been a model of consistency throughout his career winning four races at the highest level with a host of Group Twos and Threes to boot. The Khalid Abdullah owned six-year-old has made hay over ten furlongs in recent seasons, his specialist trip. Although not a course and distance winner, the son of Observatory has plenty of top class form around the Berkshire track. Runs behind the likes of Henrythenavigator, Vision D’Etat and Byword, all Group One winners, demonstrate his liking for the track, as well as his class. Nowadays, cut in the ground sees Twice Over produce his best so current going conditions at Ascot are a concern. He handles quick ground but, is much better with some give.
Another I’m willing to take on is Nathaniel, the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner. The current going will not be ideal for the soft ground loving son of Galileo. Given the going, the drop to ten furlongs from tweleve will not suit either. The John Gosden runner is a high class prospect but, conditions simply won’t suit at Ascot – he may not even run. Quick ground will not concern Dubai Prince, the beautifully actioned colt of Godolphin’s. A high class recruit from the Dermot Weld yard in Ireland injury has limited his race track appearances. A once Derby hopefully he was sold with a hefty price tag attached but, is now ready to truly test his ability. The son of Shamardal made a pleasing return to the track when comfortably accounting for older horse, Jet Away.
Jet Away has since gone to spread-eagle a decent field by nine lengths giving Dubai Prince a timely form boost. There is no doubting Dubai Princes’ potential, but his lack of experience may find him out. That being said, he does look the value in a race where many have question marks hanging over them. Henry Cecil also looks set to run his high class mare, Midday. The daughter of Oasis Dream loves to hear her hoofs rattle and the quicker the ground the better. She was just touched off by her stable companion, Twice Over, in the Juddmonte International where softish ground just found her out close home. Back on a quicker surface I fancy her to turn the tables.
That being said the horse I fancy to win the race is Snow Fairy. Ed Dunlop’s four-year-old mare has steadily improved throughout the season after a couple of lacklustre displays in her first two starts. Her third start she ran So You Think to half a length in the Irish Champion Stakes before going on to finish third in the Arc. So You Think is still the horse to beat but, with a good draw I’m hoping the French maestro, Oliver Pesiler, can get the best out of her.
Advice: 1pts each-way Snow Fairy @ 8/1